Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $59,348$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,306.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(57,306.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,606$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,286.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,286.3\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,427$ on 2020-06-08
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $288,834$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{286,041.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(286,041.6\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $40,680$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(5.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,831.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(38,831.4\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $246,899$ on 2020-06-08
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $241,717$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(6.15 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,433.6}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(231,433.6\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,136$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(7.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,196.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,196.7\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $64,205$ on 2020-06-08
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $235,278$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(5.18 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229,064.6}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(229,064.6\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,964$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(6.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,853.6}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(32,853.6\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,730$ on 2020-06-08
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $45,133$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,430.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 67.7)}}\) (asimptote \(47,430.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,694$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(565 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,619.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 46.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,619.7\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $40,439$ on 2020-06-08
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $191,313$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{183,521.1}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(183,521.1\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,212$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(5.89 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,163.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(28,163.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $90,919$ on 2020-06-08
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $47,945$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(9.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,811.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(45,811.7\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,035$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,905.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,905.0\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $41,729$ on 2020-06-08
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,207$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,764.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(24,764.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,683$ on 2020-06-08
Best fit exponential: \(245 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,636.7}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,636.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $826$ on 2020-06-08