Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $59,348$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,306.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(57,306.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,606$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,286.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,286.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,427$ on 2020-06-08

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $288,834$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{286,041.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(286,041.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $40,680$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(5.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,831.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(38,831.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $246,899$ on 2020-06-08

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $241,717$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(6.15 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,433.6}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(231,433.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,136$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(7.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,196.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,196.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $64,205$ on 2020-06-08

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $235,278$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(5.18 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229,064.6}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(229,064.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,964$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(6.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,853.6}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(32,853.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,730$ on 2020-06-08

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,133$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,430.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 67.7)}}\) (asimptote \(47,430.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,694$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(565 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,619.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 46.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,619.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,439$ on 2020-06-08

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $191,313$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{183,521.1}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(183,521.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,212$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(5.89 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,163.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(28,163.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90,919$ on 2020-06-08

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $47,945$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(9.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,811.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(45,811.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,035$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,905.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,905.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $41,729$ on 2020-06-08

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,207$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,764.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(24,764.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,683$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(245 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,636.7}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,636.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $826$ on 2020-06-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Luxembourg recovered 99%
Croatia recovered 99%
Serbia recovered 94%
Malta recovered 93%
Denmark recovered 85%
Lithuania recovered 70%
Italy recovered 68%
San Marino recovered 65%
Romania recovered 42%
Bulgaria recovered 30%

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,040$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,889.2}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,889.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(31.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(108.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29$ on 2020-06-08

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,247$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(550 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,208.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,208.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $104$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(20.1 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.8}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(103.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-06-08

Serbia⮸

Population $8,737,371$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,896$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,264.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.1)}}\) (asimptote \(11,264.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $250$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(57.7 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{245.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(245.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $457$ on 2020-06-08

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $630$ on 2020-06-08

Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{594.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(594.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-08

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25$ on 2020-06-08